AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV) is engaged in the design, development and production of unmanned aircraft systems and electric energy technologies for various industries and governmental agencies. The company's small aircraft are used by U.S. Department of Defense customers to deliver real-time reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition to tactical operating units. Its electrical products include recharge systems for industrial vehicle batteries and power processing test equipment. Ford Motor (NYSE: F) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) are on the company's commercial customer list. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) is a major competitor.
The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of 30 cents and revenues of $64.3 million. Analysts had been expecting 27 cents and $59.3 billion. In discussing the successful quarter, the CEO pointed to strength in demand for unmanned aircraft and related support services. Management also guided FY09 revenues to about $258.9-$269.7 million, versus Street consensus of $259.44 million. Funded backlog at the end of Q4 was up 35% from the same point last year.
No, the airlines haven't started charging by the pound. At least not yet...
Jokes aside, nobody told the airlines there'd be days like these, to paraphrase John Lennon.
Jet fuel costs -- up 84% in the past year alone -- have skyrocketed, along with the cost of just about every other product derived from the world's most vital commodity, and the airlines are looking for every conceivable way to reduce weight, reduce wind/resistance drag, and increase operational efficiency, The New York Times reported Wednesday.
The major carriers are replacing heavier seats with lighter ones, cleaning engines and planes more often, reducing the fresh water available on flights, and plugging into electric outlets instead of idling engines at the gate, among other changes, in order to cut fuel consumption.
More air travel changes ahead
Moreover, the changes -- and charges -- have only just begun, so says stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer. "Everyone knows about the added bag charges, a pain in the neck, for sure. But it could get worse," says Bauer, who also flies on a major carrier about 5-7 times per year. "In the winter you could see a per pound baggage charge, or something along those lines. So don't pack that extra winter coat when you fly this December."
Pan American World Airways, or Pan Am, was an international airline that was in business from 1927 through 1991, when it ceased its operations after over a decade of mounting financial losses and having to declare for bankruptcy.
The company, despite being defunct for seventeen years, is still well remembered in pop culture. The blue circular logo has made such an impression that it is put on designer travel bags to signify traveling in luxury today.
Beyond that, Pan Am will always be remembered as the airline that brought the Beatles to New York City in 1964, as well as the airline that con man Frank Abagnale, Jr., passed himself off as a pilot for, which was later immortalized in the 2002 film Catch Me If You Can.
Pan Am was featured prominently in a number of other films. One of the most notable appearances was the Pan Am "space clipper" in Stanley Kubrick's science fiction masterpiece 2001: A Space Odyssey. The Pan Am brand was also displayed in the movie Blade Runner, and the company is said to be one of many, along with Atari, Cuisinart, and others, that suffered from the "Blade Runner curse" -- companies whose logos were featured in the movie experienced disasters and have since gone defunct.
Starting with an aggregate of recent airlines news:
Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) said it would cut 3,000 of its 45,000 jobs, about 6.5%, and cut capacity 11% in the fourth quarter. The company will eliminate 67 planes and the company's chief executive and president say they will not take a salary for the rest of this year and will decline bonuses.
Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) May traffic rose 4.2% from the year-earlier month to 10.51 billion revenue passenger miles. Delta's May capacity increased 1.5% to 12.67 billion available seat miles. Load factor, or the percentage of seats filled with passengers, in May rose to 82.9% from 80.9%.
US Airways Group Inc. (NYSE: LCC) said its May mainline traffic rose 0.6% to 5.39 billion revenue passenger miles from last year. May mainline capacity was flat at about 6.54 billion available seat miles. Mainline load factor in May rose to 82.3% from 81.9% a year ago. It also said Wednesday it is cutting up to 1,100 more jobs, about 3% of its workforce.
Many institutional funds shy away from stocks that sell below the $5 mark. It is assumed that most low-priced shares are a sign of trouble. In many cases that is true.
As some airlines become small caps, driven down as the price of oil comes up, several could drop below the $5 threshold. That may hinder these stocks from rebounding by eliminating them from some fund portfolios.
It is hard to imagine that AMR's (NYSE: AMR) stock trades at $7.19 and has been as low as $6. That puts the company's market cap at $1.8 billion. Some biotech companies with almost no revenue are worth as much. Delta's (NYSE: DAL) are at $6.15 and its market cap is about the same as AMR's.
Airline stocks are now the province of speculators and day traders. Since some may face Chapter 11, the gamble on owning the stocks is high now.
The shares of these companies have been swept into the dustbin.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author ofTen Stocks Under $10.
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S&P and Moody's (NYSE:MCO) do not have the best reputation these days. They missed most of the calls on the danger of subprime paper. Some of that has been blamed on computer problems. And, the dog ate my papers.
Now, S&P says it may downgrade its ratings on nine airlines and review one more. According toThe New York Times, "In total, 10 airlines, including all the major carriers, are now under the CreditWatch negative designation." The companies include AMR (NYSE: AMR), Delta (NYSE: DAL) and United (NASDAQ: UAUA).
S&P says some of the airlines may even face Chapter 11.
It would be fair to ask where the ratings agency has been. Jet fuel prices are close to doubling in a year. Every airline faces huge losses throughout the rest of 2009. Some carriers have lost nearly 80% of their market value in a year. AMR now trades just above $6, down from almost $30. Its market cap is only 7% of annual revenue. In other words, the company trades close to its liquidation value.
S&P has image problems for a reason. It either gets its calls wrong, or it gives them out way too late.
In a move that may be imitated by large US carriers like AMR (NYSE: AMR), Delta (NYSE: DAL) and Northwest (NYSE: NWA), British Airways will ground part of its fleet to save money because of the rising cost of fuel.
According toThe Times of London, "The airline would park its oldest, least fuel-efficient aircraft."
Analysts are concerned that British Airways may loss money for the next two years. By taking some aircraft out of service, the carrier could ameliorate some of that.
Wall Street may watch to see if big American companies have the sense to do the same thing. Most have debt loads large enough to move them toward Chapter 11, if fuel costs stay high and a rough economy hurts passenger traffic. Major airline mergers, some of which are fairly far along, will not solve the gas price problem. Taking jets out of service may, at least in part.
Gallery: Airplanes: To fly or not to fly?
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
In reaction to surging fuel costs, several major airlines announced today that they were raising their fares in order to recoup some of their rapidly increasing flying costs.
The increase this time around is $20 and effects passengers traveling on UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL), and AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR)'s American Airlines. The $20 jump in prices will be added to the airline's fuel surcharges, and consequently, these charges are now running at $130 round trip on most flights that you will book through the airlines.
The current rate hike was first initiated by Delta, and marks the second time in just over a week that the airline has been forced to raise fares in order to combat record high fuel costs. Times are definitely tough for airlines, and they are doing everything they can to combat fuel prices, but regardless of the rate increases most analysts are still expecting to see huge losses this year from most, if not all, airline carriers.
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Chelsea Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CHTP) to Perform from Outperform after their survey suggested physicians believe currently available generic treatments are adequate in neurogenic orthostatic hypotension, which could impact the company's lead drug Droxidopa.
Clearwire (NASDAQ:CLWR) was cut to Sell from Hold at Citigroup on valuation, as they estimate fair value at $13.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Goldman downgraded Kellogg (NYSE:K) to Neutral from Buy and Hershey Foods (NYSE:HSY) to Sell from Neutral.
Higher oil prices and the surging aviation fuel costs they imply may reduce the benefits of an airliner merger, such as the potential deal between United Airlines and U.S. Airways, but they don't eliminate a merger's long-term positives, an analyst argued Tuesday.
Further, C. Leonard Bauer, independent stock analyst, told BloggingStocks Tuesday the potential United-US Airways union would benefit the sector in that it would be the second merger this year among major airlines in the United States, also known as the legacy carriers.
Shares of UAL Corp. (NYSE: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, are down 88 cents to $14.10, while US Airways (NYSE: LCC) are down 55 cents to $7.79 in Tuesday trading.
Sector right-sizing
"The deal would take another legacy carrier off the table, after the Delta-Northwest merger, and that can only help the sector from an earnings standpoint," Bauer said. "The United States airline sector leads the league in airline route redundancy and duplicate hubs. This second deal would further tighten the sector."
Reading the paper everyday means seeing a headline that another airline merger is in the offing. The most recent wave of articles is on a United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA) merger with US Air (NYSE: LCC). It is yet another example of two carriers hoping that they can get together and save costs, without alienating customers in the process.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The companies have identified more than $1.5 billion in potential cost savings and revenue enhancements from joining forces." The word "potential" is the key.
Airline employees who are in unions have a good chance of shutting down a merged airline if they think they will loss a ton of jobs. Pilots, flight attendants, and mechanics all have plenty of leverage. A combination of United and US Air would have almost $10 billion in revenue a quarter. It would not take a very long strike to eat through $1.5 billion of that.
The number of pending mergers is also almost certain to get some of them canceled by The Justice Department. Members of Congress who have employees on airline payrolls are also likely to take a position. Today, the US has at least five major carriers. If Delta (NYSE: DAL) and Northwest (NYSE: NWA) get married, that cuts consumer choice down by a lot.
Don't count on a United hook up with US Air. It is not likely to happen.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they can't be profitable with this huge cost – it's time to move on.
Here's a revelation. The airline industry is disappearing right before our eyes. And it doesn't even matter. They can merge all they want, they can try to cut costs through synergy, but the business can't survive $120 oil. The variable cost is 35% of their expense. That's not tenable and it is going higher. Fares have to double to make it up. That's just not tenable. The Dreamliner's a nice savings, but this American industry won't get there in time to be saved by it.
Last week we saw the big give-up, the departure of even the longest-term investors. The stocks are signaling that most of them will have to restructure through bankruptcy. They have done it before, but this time it doesn't matter. The fare increases have to occur, and they are such that the airline structures can't be profitable. It is one of those industries that can't stay afloat without massive federal subsidies, and that can't happen.
I have hated the airline stocks ever since 1985 when I recommended Delta (NYSE: DAL) (Cramer's Take) and my clients promptly dropped 50%. I reiterate that after the tremendous declines these stocks have, they are still worth avoiding. Don't be tempted to pick up these stocks if oil "swoons" down to $115. The airlines will rally, but they will need to do every bit of financing possible if a rally occurs.
Another day. Another merger of two struggling airlines.
This time it''s UAL Corp.'s (NYSE: UAUA) United Airlines and US Airways Inc. (NYSE: LCC), which together lost more than $773 million in the first quarter are reportedly in are "advanced" merger talks, two sources familiar with the situation told The Associated Press. These "sources" may be public relations people who are leaking details of the deal at the direction of the investment bankers and the companies themselves.
Wall Street is reacting positively to the news sending shares of US Airways in mid-afternoon trading. I am not so sure a celebration is in order. For one thing, as Reuters and the Associated Press both have noted this is a marriage of necessity.
"The discussions intensified over the weekend after Continental Airlines Inc, which had been in negotiations with United, pulled out to explore a potential marketing alliance with AMR Corp's American Airlines and British Airways Plc," according to Reuters.