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Starbucks: The next McDonald's

I'll admit the headline is a bit deceptive. On one hand McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) has seen a resurgence in its business and frankly, the shares have done very well. In fact since McDonald's went through its own set of problems five years ago, the stock has since tripled in value.

The parallels between Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) and McDonald's are very eerie. Starbucks has hit the proverbial wall after a successful ride from 1992 to 2007 as one of the premier GameChanger stocks around. Starbucks, like McDonald's over-expanded its store base in the United States and began to cannibalize its own revenues. Starbucks, like McDonald's, lost its principle focus and did not tend to 'what got them there".

In late 2002 McDonald's stock had just finished a 4 year run of losing 70% of its value. The company was becoming a hodgepodge of different menu items, culminating with the disastrous release of the McLean Deluxe, which was not even all beef! Advertising and marketing programs were a mish-mash of geographical themes yielding no consistency whatsoever. McDonald's even posted, for the first time in its illustrious history, an operating loss in 2002, and experienced negative same store sales for the first time, as well.

Then CEO Jim Cantalupo said enough was enough. McDonald's closed 700 unproductive stores (sound familiar?) and re-focused its menu and advertising campaign.

Continue reading Starbucks: The next McDonald's

Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy: Time for a TAN

"Renewable fuels and clean energy, a sector beaten down hard since last fall, are now primed for a major comeback," says Eric Roseman, editor of The Commodity Trend Alert. Here's his ETF play on the sector.

"With every passing day the price of crude oil rises, the secular trend to alternative energy becomes even more powerful. Consumers, companies and governments are now sick and tired of soaring energy prices.

"The long-term solution is to obviously reduce our dependence on oil and increase our consumption of renewable fuels like wind, solar, and nuclear energy.

"The bull market in alternative energy began in 2005 when a host of companies in this thriving sector went public, supported by government subsidies, especially in Germany and Spain. Interestingly, Germany and Spain have just reduced solar energy subsidies this spring.

"In my view, those subsidy cuts don't matter at this stage. When companies in the solar sector are making money, why should governments continue subsidizing them?

Continue reading Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy: Time for a TAN

Why I spent some of my stimulus check on GE

I finally got around to investing a portion of my stimulus check. I had a few stocks in mind for the money, but at the end of the day, I decided that I should buy shares of a high-yielding blue chip for the very long term. It really wasn't a difficult decision. The winner of my stimulus-check buy was none other than General Electric (NYSE: GE).

I've been talking about GE a lot lately, but if you're an investor, you know there's a lot to talk about this conglomerate. No, I don't mean fundamentally, necessarily, I mean that its current yield is simply amazing. GE has dropped a lot this year, and it's gotten the attention of many value investors. In fact, I purchased some GE shares not too long ago when they were trading about six bucks higher than the current price for what I hoped would be a short-term trade. I admit it, I was wrong.

I still think my reasoning at the time was correct, and I continue to hold those shares, but I also hold a long-term position of GE that I add to several times a year with the intent of holding for the next couple decades, maybe even beyond that. It is this position that received the shares acquired through the beneficence of the government. Although some might argue that I should have improved the cost basis of my trade, I decided against such action, since I think GE might be down for a while. If I wanted to use the money for a trade, there are probably better ideas out there for it than GE. But long-term, GE's current 4.7% yield will probably turn into an effective yield of better than 20%, assuming the dividend continues to rise in the future as it has in the past (I believe it will).

The only other stock that provided real competition for my stimulus windfall is Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). However, the GE yield was just too beautiful. Granted, Coke is obviously the more focused business, and its brand equity is impeccable. But a near 3% yield is no match for a 4.7% yield. I think I made the right decision, but time will tell. No matter what, though, anyone who buys GE now better be patient. Short-term traders might not be rewarded.

Disclosure: I own Coke and GE; positions can change at any time.

Constellation Brands (STZ): Share price defining bullish 'pennant'

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) produces and markets more than 250 brands of wine, spirits and beer, in about 150 countries. The Wines division, the largest maker of wine by volume in the world, is responsible for such brands as Robert Mondavi, Inniskillin, Simi, Arbor Mist and Blackthorn (cider). The Spirits division distills such brands as Black Velvet, Chi-Chi's, Fleischmann's, Canadian LTD and Mr. Boston. The Imports division has the right to import, market, and sell Corona Extra, Corona Light, Tsingtao, Modelo Especial, Pacifico and St. Pauli Girl. The firm distributes its products through wholesalers, government beverage control agencies and various retailers. Diageo (NYSE: DEO) and Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) are major competitors.

The company pleased investors earlier in the week, when it reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 34 cents and revenues of $931.8 million. Analysts had been looking for 31 cents and $906.1 million. The highlight of the quarter was a 24% year over year rise in branded wine net sales. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $1.68-$1.76, versus consensus of $1.70.

Continue reading Constellation Brands (STZ): Share price defining bullish 'pennant'

Robbins & Myers (RBN): Shares defining bullish 'pennant'

Robbins & Myers (NYSE: RBN) provides equipment used for the industrial processing and management of fluids. Its Fluid Management segment offers hydraulic drilling equipment, slurry grinders and wellhead systems used by oil and gas, specialty chemical and wastewater treatment firms. The Process Solutions unit makes glass-lined reactors, storage vessels and mixing/agitation devices for the pharmaceutical and fine chemical markets. The Romaco segment provides equipment for the dosing, filling and sealing of vials, capsules, tubes and bottles.

Investors were pleased earlier in the week, when the firm reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 62 cents and revenues of $200.9 million. The Street had been looking for 58 cents and $190.2 million. Management also guided Q4 EPS to 62-67 cents (60 cent consensus) and FY08 EPS to $2.10-$2.15 ($2.05 consensus).

Continue reading Robbins & Myers (RBN): Shares defining bullish 'pennant'

Lousy economy may benefit online education companies

With a slowing economy and corporate layoffs being announced daily, look for online education companies to benefit. Many unemployed are and will be looking for a profession, and many employed people are always looking to make career changes. Online education companies are therefore enjoying higher enrollment rates.

Shares in Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) are surging over 20% on a strong earnings report.

According to the AP: " Total degree enrollment rose 11 percent during the quarter to 345,300 students, versus a year ago. Apollo has boosted student retention with expanded academic programs, improved courses and other services." The company even managed to raise tuition by 4-10% depending on the program.

Pretty good business climate if you can both raise prices and increase enrollment. With a continuing weak economy, look for shares in online education to potentially be an interesting trade in a struggling economy.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/2/08.

Serious Money: Tracking five stable stocks

After seeing the interest in yesterday's Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, I decided to track the stocks on a quarterly basis to see how they hold up over time (otherwise, what would be the purpose of discussing them in the first place?).

I said that all five have shrewd, conservative management teams and have been in the right place, at the right time -- and prepared. The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. Although my original story was published yesterday, I will be using the second quarter end point for my five stocks as well.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) closed at $64.34 and pays a 2.89% dividend yield.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) closed at $45.80 and pays a 1% dividend yield.

3) Chubb Corp (NYSE: CB) closed at $49.01 and pays a 2.64% dividend yield.

Continue reading Serious Money: Tracking five stable stocks

AeroVironment (AVAV): Share price cycles in bullish 'flag' formation

AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV) is engaged in the design, development and production of unmanned aircraft systems and electric energy technologies for various industries and governmental agencies. The company's small aircraft are used by U.S. Department of Defense customers to deliver real-time reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition to tactical operating units. Its electrical products include recharge systems for industrial vehicle batteries and power processing test equipment. Ford Motor (NYSE: F) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) are on the company's commercial customer list. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) is a major competitor.

The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of 30 cents and revenues of $64.3 million. Analysts had been expecting 27 cents and $59.3 billion. In discussing the successful quarter, the CEO pointed to strength in demand for unmanned aircraft and related support services. Management also guided FY09 revenues to about $258.9-$269.7 million, versus Street consensus of $259.44 million. Funded backlog at the end of Q4 was up 35% from the same point last year.

Continue reading AeroVironment (AVAV): Share price cycles in bullish 'flag' formation

Sallie Mae (SLM): At the head of the class

"Since the market started its downturn early this year, I have avoided all financial stocks and resisted the temptation of value plays," says Dave Dyer.

In his Dave Dyer's Newsletter, he explains, "Well, it is now time to violate both of those prohibitions at once." Here, he looks at a new buy for SLM Corporation (NYSE: SLM), commonly known as Sallie Mae, the nation's largest provider of college loans and savings programs."

"There must be some financial areas that have predictable, growing demand, willing customers who actually have low default rates, and securitization processes that do not involve the type of financial engineering that is only intended to hide risk.

"Well, there is such an area, and it even involves a product that it makes sense to finance since it will actually increase in value over time. I'm talking about student loans.

Continue reading Sallie Mae (SLM): At the head of the class

Taleo Corporation (TLEO): Shares cycle through positive trading channel

Taleo Corporation (NASDAQ: TLEO) offers software that allows businesses to efficiently manage their staffing processes. Products help to automate recruitment, background screening, regulatory compliance, skills assessment and tracking of professional, hourly, and temporary employees. The firm's professional services division provides implementation and technical support. Customers range from small businesses to global enterprises. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) and Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) are among Taleo's large-cap clients.

Investors were pleased last month, when the company affirmed its Q2 EPS and revenue guidance figures. Management also said it expected this week's acquisition of talent management software maker Vurv Technology to add to its 2008 results, projecting EPS of 62 cents (60 cent consensus) and revenues of $175-$177 million ($162.8M consensus).

Continue reading Taleo Corporation (TLEO): Shares cycle through positive trading channel

Barrick Gold: A defensive stock with an inflation hedge

In a market dancing in bear market territory and with elevated inflation, it certainly doesn't hurt to own a defensive stock or two. And one that fits the bill, with an inflation hedge as a bonus, is Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).

Barrick Gold is the world's number one gold producer, with a 2007 production capacity of 8.1 million ounces, and 124.6 million ounces in proved/probable reserves. Analysts see a 20-30% revenue gain in 2008 for ABX, following a solid performance in 2007, due to a higher average gold price and increased production.

What's behind the gold bull market? Three factors: 1) increased use of gold in industrial and commercial applications, 2) rising demand for gold jewelry, and 3) increased reliance on gold and gold shares as an alternative investment. All three trends show only modest signs of abating in 2008. Asia-based jewelry demand looks especially promising in the immediate years ahead. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for ABX are $2.43/$2.60.

Continue reading Barrick Gold: A defensive stock with an inflation hedge

Forbes expert 'quacks' for Aflac (AFL)

Aflac (NYSE: AFL) is a new addition to the "Borderless Portfolio" maintained by global expert John Christy. Here's the latest from his industry-leading Forbes International Investment Report.

"If you own a television, chances are you're quite familiar with the infamous squawking duck in Aflac's commercials. Aflac has also been in the news lately as the first American company to give shareholders a 'say on pay', or the ability to vote on executive compensation.

"Less well known, however, is Aflac's huge presence in the Japanese insurance market. In 2007, roughly
75% of the company's pre-tax operating earnings were generated in Japan.

"Alfac has been doing business in Japan for more than 30 years, and one in four Japanese households has an Aflac insurance policy. In Japan, Aflac sells healthcare policies for certain things that aren't covered by the national healthcare system, as well as life insurance. And, yes, they have a talking duck in their ads over there too.

"At a time when many financial companies are reporting massive write-offs, Aflac reiterated its target of 15% earnings growth this year, and double-digit growth in 2009. Aflac Japan is doing its part to help drive this growth with 19% operating earnings growth in the first quarter of 2008."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

The Andersons (ANDE): Price defines bullish 'flag' consolidation pattern

The Andersons (NASDAQ: ANDE) is a diversified firm, with interests in the U.S. agriculture, transportation and retail markets. Its Grain & Ethanol Group purchases and merchandises grain; operates grain elevator facilities; manages ethanol production facilities; and engages in grain and ethanol trading. The Rail Group buys, sells, leases, rebuilds, and repairs various types of used railcars and rail equipment. The Retail Group offers hardware, plumbing, electrical, and building supplies, as well as specialty foods and wines. The Plant Nutrient and Turf & Specialty Groups formulate fertilizers. The company has operations in ten states and Puerto Rico, plus rail leasing interests in Canada and Mexico.

The firm pleased investors last week, when it boosted its FY08 EPS guidance from $3.65-$4.00 to $4.40-$4.80. Analysts had been looking for $3.79. Management attributed the favorable outlook to the improved performance of the Plant Nutrient Group.

Continue reading The Andersons (ANDE): Price defines bullish 'flag' consolidation pattern

Contrarian shops at Children's Place (PLCE): No kidding!

"If you've visited a mall – or if you've ever bought clothing for toddlers – you might already be familiar with our latest Undiscovered Gem: Children's Place Retail Stores (NASDAQ: PLCE)," says Elizabeth Harrow.

In Schaeffer's Research, the technical and contrarian advisor explains, "The stock is on the ascent, but Wall Street isn't taking much notice."

"The company was founded in 1969, and is based out of Seacaucus, New Jersey. The retailing chain boasts a market cap of just under $1 billion. It is is a member of the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, as well as the S&P SuperComp 1500, which lends the shares a bit of Street cred.

"The firm recently pleasantly surprised investors with its same-store sales figures. During May, sales at stores open for at least 1 year rose by 10%, compared to analysts' expectations for a gain of 4.3%. Total sales for the month galloped 19% higher for the 4-week period ended May 31.

Continue reading Contrarian shops at Children's Place (PLCE): No kidding!

EMCOR Group (EME): Shares advance through trading channel

EMCOR Group (NYSE: EME) plans, installs, operates and maintains the systems that create facility environments. These include installations for power generation, power distribution, lighting, security, communications, plumbing, waste treatment, heating, ventilation, refrigeration and air-conditioning. The firm also provides facilities management and maintenance support. It serves commercial, industrial and institutional clients such as Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB). Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI) is a major competitor.

The Street was surprised last week, when EMCOR guided FY08 EPS from $2.08-$2.28 to $2.22-$2.42 and FY08 revenues from $6.3-$6.5 billion to $6.8-$7.0 billion. Analysts had been looking for $2.31 and $6.76 billion. The CEO cited "solid order activity" and a "strong contract backlog" for the favorable view.

Continue reading EMCOR Group (EME): Shares advance through trading channel

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Last updated: July 05, 2008: 07:28 PM

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